Roki Sasaki signs with the Los Angeles Dodgers. Let’s just say Vegas didn’t overreact.
Last week, the Dodgers were over 320 favorites to win the 2025 World Series, according to BetMGM. On Saturday, they were over 300 favorites to win the 2025 World Series. This results in a change in the implied probability from 23.81% to 25%.
The bigger impact was felt early in the offseason when the Dodgers went from their opening line of +400 to +320 after signing Blake Snell.
This may seem counterintuitive considering that Sasaki has been portrayed by many as one of the best pitching prospects in recent MLB history. His signing bonus was reportedly only $6.5 million, but he had the talent to easily command a nine-figure deal if he was allowed to hit the open market rather than abide by international signing rules for players his age.
However, the slight change could be largely due to the fact that Sasaki was already entrenched in the Dodgers’ chances, while Snell was a bit of a surprise. Regardless of whether or not there was a behind-the-scenes handshake deal for Sasaki to take over Dodger Blue, almost all observers pointed out that the Dodgers were the favorite to sign Sasaki when he was named. And when the best MLB team knows a player like Sasaki, Vegas won’t wait for a deal to isolate itself.
It still remained a mystery as to what Sasaki would do, simply because the San Diego Padres were considered co-favorites and the decision ultimately came down to the preferences of a 23-year-old who doesn’t talk to the media much. When Sasaki finally announced his choice, this uncertainty ended.
Odds for the 2025 World Series as of January 18
All odds via BetMGM:
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Dodgers +300
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Braves +850
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Yankees +850
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Mets +1000
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Phillies +1100
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Oriole +1500
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Astros +1600
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Padres +1800
The Dodgers are not the absolute favorites they are portrayed to be
If you were to judge the Dodgers’ World Series chances by the reaction they generated in some corners of the internet when they signed Sasaki, you’d wonder why there were any games at all this year.
There is little argument that the Dodgers aren’t the top team in the MLB. They won 98 games last year despite ongoing injury issues, won the 2024 World Series, then added Sasaki, Snell, Michael Conforto and Hyeseong Kim and retained Teoscar Hernandez and Blake Treinen. It was as perfect an offseason as Dodgers fans could have imagined (not Juan Soto department).
And yet, for all their financial power and intelligence, Vegas doesn’t give them more than a 1-in-4 chance of winning the Fall Classic.
That’s how baseball works. The Golden State Warriors may have been -150 favorites after signing Kevin Durant, but the nature of the MLB playoffs is that any team can go under if they have a few difficult games. The Dodgers were on the verge of elimination in the 2024 NLDS and had to completely eliminate the Padres to win their first series. The +300 odds are still incredibly high by baseball standards, but the Dodgers shouldn’t be ready for a third ring in six years.
So there’s still a reason to keep an eye on your team this season if they actually try to compete. There’s no doubt that being a Dodgers fan is fun now, but being a fan of the team that shocked the Dodgers in the playoffs might be even better.